Mombasa United FC vs Kariobangi Sharks
Match details. Premier League, Final. Kick-off is Thu 1 Oct, 12:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Kariobangi Sharks are 16th on 38 points after 34 games, 2 points behind Posta Rangers FC, 11 points clear of Bidco United. A win would take them above Posta Rangers FC. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Mombasa United FC have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L D W. Kariobangi Sharks have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W D.
The numbers. Mombasa United FC score 0.8 and concede 0.2 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Kariobangi Sharks score 1.3 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and four games without a goal.
The read. A draw. A tight game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 25%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.14, 90% on the records (Mombasa United FC: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Kariobangi Sharks: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10). Backup: Both Teams to Score - No at 1.60. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Mombasa United FC or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); Kariobangi Sharks or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Mombasa United FC 0-0 Kariobangi Sharks (19% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).