Match details. Stuttgart host Greuther Furth at the MHPArena in an international friendly. Kick-off is scheduled for Thu 1 Oct at 16:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Since this is a friendly match, there are no points riding on the result.
Form. Stuttgart have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, averaging 1.4 points a game. Greuther Furth have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, averaging 1.2 points a game.
The numbers. Stuttgart score 2.1 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, keeping one clean sheet and failing to score in two games. Greuther Furth score 1.5 and concede 1.4 a game, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Stuttgart have won four, drawn one and lost three. Two of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. In the last four, Stuttgart won two, one was drawn and Greuther Furth won one. Their last meeting on 8 Jan 2022 finished Stuttgart 0-0 Greuther Furth, with Stuttgart having 17 shots to 10, 61% of the ball and one yellow card.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%, but six of the last eight meetings went under 2.5, and for me those meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals, as their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records also put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Six of the last eight meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Stuttgart or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Stuttgart 1-1 Greuther Furth (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).