Cayman Islands vs Puerto Rico
Match details. CONCACAF Nations League, League B - 1. Kick-off is Fri 2 Oct, 01:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Centroamericano de Mayaguez.
Form. Cayman Islands have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L L. Puerto Rico have won six, drawn none and lost four of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W.
The numbers. Cayman Islands score 0.4 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Cayman Islands average 4.2 shots (1.0 on target), 2.5 corners and 1.8 cards a game. Puerto Rico score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Puerto Rico average 8.0 shots (3.0 on target), 3.0 corners and 2.1 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 94% against the records' 62%.
The read. No firm call: Puerto Rico are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Puerto Rico the likelier winners; Puerto Rico are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Puerto Rico.
The bets. No best bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Cayman Islands 1-1 Puerto Rico (12% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Puerto Rico the favourite), a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Cayman Islands in their last internationals: lost 0-2 at Guyana, drew 0-0 v Dominica. Puerto Rico in their last internationals: won 2-0 at Dominica, lost 0-1 v Guyana (rated above them). Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).