Match details. National League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is Thu 1 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv FC are 2nd on 17 points after 7 games, 1 point behind Ashdod, 1 point clear of Hapoel Rishon LeZion. A win would take them above Ashdod. Maccabi Ironi Kiryat Gat are 10th on 8 points after 7 games, 2 points behind Kafr Qasim, level on points with Maccabi Herzliya. A win would take them above Kafr Qasim.
Form. Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv FC have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D W. Maccabi Ironi Kiryat Gat have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L D D.
The numbers. Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv FC score 2.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv FC average 17.0 shots (8.0 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Maccabi Ironi Kiryat Gat score 0.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Maccabi Ironi Kiryat Gat average 12.0 shots (4.3 on target), 5.0 corners and 3.7 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 78% against the records' 57%.
The read. No firm call: Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv FC are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv FC the likelier winners; Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv FC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.58, 79% on the records (Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv FC: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 7; Maccabi Ironi Kiryat Gat: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 7). The safer one: Maccabi Ironi Kiryat Gat Under 1.5 Goals at 1.17 (86%). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.23. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv FC 1-0 Maccabi Ironi Kiryat Gat (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).