Match details. Brasileiro Serie B. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time.
Form. Cuiaba EC MT have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W L. AA Ponte Preta SP have won one, drawn one and lost eight of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L L.
The numbers. Cuiaba EC MT score 1.8 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Cuiaba EC MT average 5.2 corners and 2.0 cards a game. AA Ponte Preta SP score none and concede 3.3 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets and six games without a goal. AA Ponte Preta SP average 4.3 corners and 2.8 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 36%.
The read. Cuiaba EC MT to win. Their goals for and against make Cuiaba EC MT the likelier winners; Cuiaba EC MT are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Cuiaba EC MT.
The bets. Best bet: Cuiaba EC MT 1UP at 1.10, 87% on the records (Cuiaba EC MT scored first 4 of last 5, led in 4; led in 4 of 5 at home). Predicted score: Cuiaba EC MT 2-0 AA Ponte Preta SP (15% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).