Belarus vs San Marino
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League C - 3. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest. The referee is Alexandros Tsakalidis.
What's at stake. Belarus are 3rd on 1 point after 2 games, 3 points behind Finland, 1 point clear of San Marino. A win would take them level on points with Finland. San Marino are 4th on 0 points after 2 games, 1 point behind Belarus. A win would take them above Belarus.
Form. Belarus have won none, drawn four and lost six of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D D L. In this competition Belarus have gone D L D L. San Marino have won none, drawn none and lost ten of their last ten, 0.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. In this competition San Marino have gone L L.
The numbers. Belarus score 0.5 and concede 2.2 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and six games without a goal. Belarus average 9.4 shots (2.5 on target), 3.5 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 36% of the ball. San Marino score 0.2 and concede 4.9 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and eight games without a goal. San Marino average 4.5 shots (0.8 on target), 1.9 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 29% of the ball.
Head to head. Belarus have won all of the last two meetings. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. The last time they met, on 18 Nov 2018, it finished Belarus 2-0 San Marino.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 93% against the records' 50%.
The read. No firm call: Belarus are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make Belarus the likelier winners; Belarus are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Belarus.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Belarus 2-1 San Marino (10% chance).
The agreed story. Belarus or the draw, goals in between.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Belarus in their last internationals: drew 0-0 at Finland, lost 0-2 at Albania. San Marino in their last internationals: lost 0-3 v Albania, lost 0-7 v Finland. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).