Colombia vs Paraguay
Match details. It's an international friendly. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 01:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. There's no league points on the line, it's just a friendly.
Form. Colombia are unbeaten in ten, five wins and five draws, 2.0 points a game. Their last five go D, W, D, W, W. Paraguay sit on three wins, four draws, three losses in ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five read L, D, D, W, L.
The numbers. Colombia average 1.2 goals for and 0.3 against in their last six at home, with five clean sheets and two goalless games. They also average 14.3 shots, 5.7 on target, 4.3 corners and 1.6 cards per game. Paraguay score one and concede 1.3 in their last six away, keeping two clean sheets. They average 7.5 shots, 2.8 on target, 3.5 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The odds board lists 28% while the records suggest 56%, so the numbers pull in opposite directions.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 31%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.25, 73% on the records (Colombia: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home; Paraguay: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 6 away). The safer one: Paraguay Under 1.5 Goals at 1.21 (77%). Backup: Paraguay Under 1.5 Goals at 1.21. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Colombia or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Colombia 1-0 Paraguay (15% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).