CA Sarmiento Junin vs CA River Plate (ARG)
Match details. It's a Primera LPF clash. Kick-off is Wed 14 Oct, 23:00 Lagos time.
Form. Sarmiento have six wins, one draw and three losses in their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W L. River have five wins, three draws and two losses in their last ten, 1.8 points a game, with a recent run of W L W W W.
The numbers. Sarmiento score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game over the last ten, keeping three clean sheets. They average 3.6 corners and 2.9 cards a game. River score 1.5 and concede one a game in the same span, also with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Their average is 5.5 corners and 2.3 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%.
The case against. Sarmiento's record still gives them 42% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. CA River Plate (ARG) or the draw. An open game. Both teams' records favour CA River Plate (ARG). Their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: CA Sarmiento Junin 1-2 CA River Plate (ARG) (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).