THE READ
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League A - 4. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Philips Stadion, Eindhoven. The referee is Donatas Rumsas.
What's at stake. Netherlands are 2nd on 5 points after 3 games, 2 points behind Greece, 1 point clear of Germany. A win would take them above Greece. Serbia are 4th on 0 points after 3 games, 4 points behind Germany.
Team news. C. Gakpo is their top scorer. J. van Hecke is their centre-back. Netherlands's line-up is confirmed. A. Živković is their main creator. S. Eraković is their centre-back. Serbia's line-up is confirmed.
Form. Netherlands have won five, drawn five and lost none of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D D W. Serbia have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W L.
The numbers. Netherlands score 2.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. Netherlands average 14.7 shots (6.2 on target), 6.2 corners and 0.8 cards a game, with 64% of the ball. Serbia score 1.1 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Serbia average 11.8 shots (4.2 on target), 5.7 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 33% of the ball.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 27 Sep 2026, it finished Netherlands 2-1 Serbia: Netherlands had 25 shots to 11, 67% of the ball, two yellow cards.
The case against. Netherlands without C. Gakpo (striker), J. van Hecke (centre-back).
The read. Netherlands or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Netherlands the likelier winners; Netherlands are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Netherlands. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.09, 82% on the records (Netherlands: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home; Serbia: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10). Full cover: Serbia Under 1.5 Goals at 1.20. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Netherlands are a clear winner, no Unders); 1X2 - 2UP: Netherlands (the signs point different ways); Under 5.5 Goals (Netherlands are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Netherlands 3-0 Serbia (12% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Netherlands or Over 1.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
no price yet
NED 6 of 6 (100%) · SRB 9 of 10 (90%)99.8%
Netherlands: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · Serbia: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · each game weighed by who it was against · the call is Netherlands or the draw: Netherlands without C. Gakpo (striker), J. van Hecke (centre-back) (rule 3)
Netherlands 1UPTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.09
NED 4 of 5 (80%) · SRB 5 of 6 (83%)83.8%
Netherlands scored first 4 of last 5, led in 4 · led in 5 of 6 at home · Serbia trailed in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against · the call is Netherlands or the draw: Netherlands without C. Gakpo (striker), J. van Hecke (centre-back) (rule 3)
Netherlands to WinTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.19
NED 3 of 6 (50%) · SRB 6 of 10 (60%)82%
Netherlands won 3 of 6 at home · Serbia lost 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 66% · each game weighed by who it was against · the call is Netherlands or the draw: Netherlands without C. Gakpo (striker), J. van Hecke (centre-back) (rule 3)
Netherlands to Win Either Half: YesTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.09
NED 4 of 6 (67%) · SRB 7 of 10 (70%)79.1%
Netherlands: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Serbia: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against · the call is Netherlands or the draw: Netherlands without C. Gakpo (striker), J. van Hecke (centre-back) (rule 3)
Netherlands Win & Over 1.5TAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.24
NED 3 of 6 (50%) · SRB 5 of 10 (50%)69%
Netherlands: the bet landed in 3 of 6 at home · Serbia: the bet landed in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 64% · each game weighed by who it was against · the call is Netherlands or the draw: Netherlands without C. Gakpo (striker), J. van Hecke (centre-back) (rule 3)
Netherlands or draw and over 2.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.39
NED 4 of 6 (67%) · SRB 3 of 10 (30%)52.5%
Netherlands: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Serbia: the bet landed in 3 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 58% · each game weighed by who it was against
GOALS
no price yet
NED 6 of 6 (100%) · SRB 10 of 10 (100%)97.7%
Netherlands: over 0.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home · Serbia: over 0.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 1.5 GoalsMAININ CODES
1.09
NED 6 of 6 (100%) · SRB 8 of 10 (80%)87.1%
Netherlands: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home · Serbia: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 98% · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.38
NED 4 of 6 (67%) · SRB 6 of 10 (60%)55.4%
Netherlands: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 6 at home · Serbia: over 2.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 58% · each game weighed by who it was against
NETHERLANDS GOALS
Netherlands Over 0.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
no price yet
NED 6 of 6 (100%) · SRB 8 of 10 (80%)96.2%
Netherlands scored in 6 of 6 at home · Serbia conceded in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · each game weighed by who it was against · Netherlands without C. Gakpo, J. van Hecke (rule 3)
Netherlands Over 1.5 goalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.22
NED 4 of 6 (67%) · SRB 5 of 10 (50%)74%
Netherlands scored over 1.5 in 4 of 6 at home · Serbia conceded over 1.5 in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 78% · each game weighed by who it was against · Netherlands without C. Gakpo, J. van Hecke (rule 3)
SERBIA GOALS
Serbia Under 1.5 goalsFULL COVERIN CODES
1.20
NED 7 of 10 (70%) · SRB 5 of 6 (83%)94.7%
Serbia scored under 1.5 in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Netherlands conceded under 1.5 in 5 of 6 at home · both last 10: 86% · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY
1.14
NED 6 of 6 (100%) · SRB 8 of 10 (80%)97.7%
Netherlands: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · Serbia: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 98% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
2nd Half - Netherlands Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY
1.22
NED 6 of 6 (100%) · SRB 5 of 10 (50%)97.2%
Netherlands: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · Serbia: the bet landed in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 97% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.26
NED 5 of 6 (83%) · SRB 10 of 10 (100%)95.8%
Netherlands: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Serbia: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 97% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (Netherlands are a clear winner - no Unders); 1X2 - 2UP: Netherlands (the numbers (81%) and the records (51%) are 31 points apart, and nothing settles it); Under 5.5 Goals (Netherlands are a clear winner - no Unders)
TRENDS
Netherlands have scored in 100% of their games.
Serbia have scored in 60% of their games.
Netherlands kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.
Serbia kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.