Match details. Segunda Federacion. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 11:00 Lagos time.
Form. Real Valladolid Promesas have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W W. Calvo Sotelo Puertollano have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L W.
The numbers. Real Valladolid Promesas score three and concede one a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Real Valladolid Promesas average 10.4 shots (3.7 on target), 4.2 corners and 3.0 cards a game. Calvo Sotelo Puertollano score 1.4 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and two games without a goal. Calvo Sotelo Puertollano average 12.1 shots (3.4 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.6 cards a game.
The case against. Calvo Sotelo Puertollano's record still gives them 42% to win.
The read. Real Valladolid Promesas to win. An open game. Real Valladolid Promesas are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Real Valladolid Promesas. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Real Valladolid Promesas 2-1 Calvo Sotelo Puertollano (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).