Portugal vs Norway
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League A - 4. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio do Dragão, Porto. The referee is Maurizio Mariani.
What's at stake. Portugal are 1st on 9 points after 3 games, 6 points clear of Denmark. Norway are 3rd on 3 points after 3 games, level on points with Denmark, level on points with Wales. A win would take them above Denmark.
Team news. Cristiano Ronaldo is their top scorer. Portugal's line-up is confirmed. Ø. Nyland is their first-choice keeper. T. Heggem is their centre-back. Norway's line-up is confirmed.
Form. Portugal have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L W. Norway have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D W.
The numbers. Portugal score three and concede 0.7 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. Portugal average 15.2 shots (5.7 on target), 5.7 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Norway score 2.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Norway average 11.5 shots (4.9 on target), 4.5 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 27 Sep 2026, it finished Portugal 2-1 Norway: Portugal had 12 shots to 22, 38% of the ball, nine yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Portugal the likelier winners, but Portugal are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Norway.
The case against. Norway's record still gives them 57% to win.
The read. Portugal or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Portugal the likelier winners; Portugal are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Norway. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Norway Under 1.5 goals (Norway's own games don't back it (1 of 5)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Portugal 2-1 Norway (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).