AS Gubbio vs Perugia Calcio Spa
Match details. Serie C, Group B, Girone B - 8. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 13:30 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio Pietro Barbetti, Gubbio. The referee is D. Castellone.
What's at stake. AS Gubbio are 14th on 7 points after 7 games, level on points with Ostia Mare, level on points with Pineto. A win would take them above Ostia Mare. Perugia Calcio Spa are 9th on 10 points after 7 games, level on points with Forli, 1 point clear of Guidonia Montecelio 1937. A win would take them above Forli.
Form. AS Gubbio have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W W. Perugia Calcio Spa have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L W.
The numbers. AS Gubbio score 1.7 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. AS Gubbio average 7.9 shots (4.0 on target), 3.6 corners and 2.6 cards a game. Perugia Calcio Spa score 0.8 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Perugia Calcio Spa average 13.0 shots (3.5 on target), 6.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings AS Gubbio have won three, drawn three and lost three. Two of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, AS Gubbio won two and two were drawn. The last time they met, on 18 Jan 2026, it finished AS Gubbio 1-0 Perugia Calcio Spa.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%; seven of the last nine meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%. Seven of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.25, 85% on the records (AS Gubbio: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 7; Perugia Calcio Spa: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 9). Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: AS Gubbio 1-1 Perugia Calcio Spa (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).