Spain vs Czechia
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League A - 3. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo. The referee is Vassilis Fotias.
What's at stake. Spain are 1st on 6 points after 2 games, 3 points clear of England. Czechia are 4th on 0 points after 2 games, 3 points behind Croatia. A win would take them level on points with Croatia.
Form. Spain have won eight, drawn two and lost none of their last ten, 2.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. In this competition Spain have gone W W. Czechia have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D L. In this competition Czechia have gone L L.
The numbers. Spain score 2.5 and concede 0.7 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. Spain average 15.5 shots (5.9 on target), 5.4 corners and 0.8 cards a game, with 61% of the ball. Czechia score 1.3 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Czechia average 11.9 shots (3.1 on target), 5.1 corners and 0.8 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Spain have won two, drawn one and lost none. One of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 12 Jun 2022, it finished Spain 2-0 Czechia: Spain had 9 shots to 7, 76% of the ball, one yellow card.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 59%; two of the last three meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: two of the last three meetings went under 2.5.
The read. Spain to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Spain the likelier winners; Spain are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Spain. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 59%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Spain 3-0 Czechia (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).