Croatia vs England
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League A - 3. Kick-off is Sat 3 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadion Rujevica, Rijeka. The referee is Sven Jablonski.
What's at stake. Croatia are 3rd on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with England, 3 points clear of Czechia. A win would take them above England. England are 2nd on 3 points after 2 games, 3 points behind Spain, level on points with Croatia. A win would take them level on points with Spain.
Form. Croatia have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W W. In this competition Croatia have gone L W. England have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L W. In this competition England have gone W L.
The numbers. Croatia score 1.8 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Croatia average 11.9 shots (4.4 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. England score three and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets. England average 14.6 shots (5.8 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 55% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Croatia have won none, drawn one and lost three. Two of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 17 Jun 2026, it finished Croatia 2-4 England: Croatia had 10 shots to 22, 48% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 56% against the records' 84%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 79%.
The read. No firm call: England are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make England the likelier winners; England are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour England; the meetings favour England.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Croatia 0-2 England (3% chance).
The agreed story. England or the draw, a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Croatia in their last internationals: lost 1-4 at Spain, won 2-1 at Czechia. England in their last internationals: won 2-0 at Czechia, lost 2-3 v Spain (rated above them). Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).