Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden
Match details. It's a UEFA Nations League clash. Kick-off is Fri 2 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time.
Form. Bosnia & Herzegovina have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W L. Sweden have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D L.
The numbers. Bosnia & Herzegovina score 1.5 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. They average 10.7 shots (3.9 on target), 3.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game. Sweden score 1.2 and concede 2.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets, and average 11.0 shots (4.9 on target), 3.5 corners and 1.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Bosnia & Herzegovina the likelier winners, but Sweden are the stronger side on form and the table. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 40%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 40%.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.23, 90% on the records (Bosnia & Herzegovina: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5; Sweden: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: Over 2.5 Cards at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Bosnia & Herzegovina or Over 1.5 Goals (no result call). Predicted score: Bosnia & Herzegovina 2-1 Sweden (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).