Virgin Islands, U.S. vs Saint-Martin

Match details. CONCACAF Nations League. Kick-off is Thu 1 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time.

Form. Virgin Islands, U.S. have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W L. Saint-Martin have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W.

The numbers. Virgin Islands, U.S. score two and concede 2.3 a game in their last six at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Virgin Islands, U.S. average 1.5 corners and 1.5 cards a game. Saint-Martin score 3.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with four clean sheets. Saint-Martin average 17.7 shots (6.7 on target), 12.0 corners and 1.5 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 78% against the records' 53%.

The read. No firm call: Saint-Martin are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Saint-Martin the likelier winners; Saint-Martin are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Saint-Martin. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 79%.

The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.15, rated 98% (Virgin Islands, U.S.: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home; Saint-Martin: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Virgin Islands, U.S. 1-3 Saint-Martin (8% chance).

The agreed story. Saint-Martin or the draw, an open game.

Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Virgin Islands, U.S. in their last internationals: won 2-0 at Saint-Martin. Saint-Martin in their last internationals: lost 0-2 v Virgin Islands, U.S., won 8-0 at Bahamas. Too few internationals to judge the side from.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.