Guinea vs Kenya
Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification. Kick-off is Thu 1 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. Guinea: three wins, three draws, four losses in the last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five: L D W D W. Kenya: five wins, three draws, two losses in the last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five: D W D L W.
The numbers. Guinea average 1.1 goals for and 1.2 against in the last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. They also average 9.5 shots (3.5 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.2 cards a game. Kenya average 1.5 goals for and 0.9 against in the last ten, with five clean sheets. Their averages are 13.6 shots (4.9 on target), 8.0 corners and 1.6 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game and their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.13, 83% on the records (Guinea: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5; Kenya: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10). Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Guinea 1-1 Kenya (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).