Follo vs Sarpsborg 08
Match details. NM Cup, Round of 64. Kick-off is Wed 30 Sep, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Follo have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L W L. Sarpsborg 08 have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D D W.
The numbers. Follo score 1.4 and concede 2.3 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet, averaging 7.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game. Sarpsborg 08 score 1.2 and concede one a game in their last six away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal, averaging 6.0 corners and 0.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 88% against the records' 39%.
The read. No firm call: Sarpsborg 08 are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Sarpsborg 08 the likelier winners; Sarpsborg 08 are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 59%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Follo 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).