France vs Italy
Match details. It's a UEFA Nations League clash. Kick-off is Fri 2 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time.
Form. France have won eight, drawn none and lost two of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L W. Italy have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W L.
The numbers. France score 2.5 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. They average 16.9 shots (7.6 on target), 4.5 corners and 0.9 cards a game. Italy score three and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. They average 16.5 shots (6.6 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Italy the likelier winners, but France are the stronger side on form and the table. Both teams' records favour France.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side, and their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.14, 75% on the records (France: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 6; Italy: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); France or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); France or Both Teams Score (no result call). Predicted score: France 1-2 Italy (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).