French Guiana vs Sint Maarten
Match details. This is a CONCACAF Nations League League B - 4 clash. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 22:00 Lagos time. It's at FFB Stadium in Belmopan.
Form. French Guiana have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game, with a recent run of L D L L L. In this competition they have gone L D L L L D. Sint Maarten have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game, and their last five are L D W W D. In this competition they have gone L W L L W L.
The numbers. French Guiana score two and concede 1.6 a game at home in their last five, keeping one clean sheet. Sint Maarten score 1.1 and concede 1.7 a game away in their last seven, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. They average 8.3 shots (2.3 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.7 cards a game, holding 48% of the ball.
Head to head. The last time they met on 17 Jun 2023, French Guiana beat Sint Maarten 4-1.
The case against. Sint Maarten's record still gives them 40% to win. For me that's a long shot.
The read. French Guiana to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make French Guiana the likelier winners; they are the stronger side on form and the table. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 74%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.64, 74% on the records (French Guiana: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Sint Maarten: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 7 away). Backup: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.21. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: French Guiana 2-1 Sint Maarten (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).