THE READ
Match details. UEFA Nations League, League A - 3 action comes to Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Liege. Kick-off is Fri 2 Oct at 19:45 Lagos time, with Rohit Saggi refereeing.
What's at stake. Belgium are second on three points after two games, three points behind France and level with Italy. A win would take them level with France. Turkiye are fourth on zero points after two games, three points behind Italy. A win would take them level with Italy.
Form. Belgium have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last 10, averaging 1.8 points a game. Their last five games ended L W L W W, and they are L W in this competition. Turkiye have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last 10, getting 1.6 points a game. Their last five form is L L W L L, and they are L L in the tournament.
The numbers. Belgium score 2.5 and concede 0.9 a game over their last 10, keeping three clean sheets and going two games without a goal. They average 18.4 shots, 6.5 on target, 5.6 corners and 1.8 cards a game with 52% of the ball. Turkiye score 1.4 and concede 1.3 over their last 10, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. They average 17.4 shots, 4.2 on target, 5.9 corners and 2.6 cards with 55% possession.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game. Still, their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The read. Belgium to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Belgium the likelier winners, and Belgium are the stronger side on form and the table. Both teams' records favour Belgium, while their goals for and against point to an open game.
The bets. Best bet: Belgium or Draw at 1.17, 89% on the records (Belgium unbeaten in 5 of 5; Turkiye failed to win 5 of 10). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); 2nd Half - Belgium Over/Under: Over 0.5 (the signs point different ways); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Belgium 2-1 Turkiye (10% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Double Chance: Belgium or DrawMAININ CODES
1.17
BEL 5 of 5 (100%) · TUR 5 of 10 (50%)90.3%
Belgium unbeaten in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye failed to win 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 89% · Belgium: only games against sides at Turkiye's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Belgium or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
BEL 4 of 5 (80%) · TUR 8 of 10 (80%)84.3%
Belgium: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · Belgium: only games against sides at Turkiye's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Belgium (Draw No Bet)PAGE ONLY
1.25
BEL 5 of 7 (71%) · TUR 4 of 9 (44%)79.5%
Belgium won 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Turkiye lost 4 of 9 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 59% · each game weighed by who it was against · won 2, refunded 3, lost 2
Belgium or Draw (1UP)IN CODES
1.12
BEL 4 of 5 (80%) · TUR 4 of 5 (80%)73.3%
Belgium scored first 1 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 4 · led or was unbeaten in 4 of 5 at home · Turkiye trailed or failed to win in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues)
Belgium or Over 2.5 GoalsIN CODES
1.18
BEL 3 of 5 (60%) · TUR 7 of 10 (70%)70.8%
Belgium: the bet landed in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · Belgium: only games against sides at Turkiye's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Belgium or Draw & Over 1.5LEANPAGE ONLY
1.31
BEL 4 of 5 (80%) · TUR 3 of 10 (30%)69.2%
Belgium: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye: the bet landed in 3 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 63% · Belgium: only games against sides at Turkiye's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Belgium to WinLEANPAGE ONLY
1.58
BEL 3 of 5 (60%) · TUR 4 of 10 (40%)61.2%
Belgium won 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye lost 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 56% · Belgium: only games against sides at Turkiye's level · each game weighed by who it was against
GOALS
1.14
BEL 4 of 5 (80%) · TUR 6 of 10 (60%)72.5%
Belgium: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · Belgium: only games against sides at Turkiye's level · each game weighed by who it was against
BELGIUM GOALS
Belgium Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.09
BEL 4 of 5 (80%) · TUR 7 of 10 (70%)84%
Belgium scored in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · Belgium: only games against sides at Turkiye's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Belgium Over 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.47
BEL 3 of 5 (60%) · TUR 4 of 10 (40%)57.8%
Belgium scored over 1.5 in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye conceded over 1.5 in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 57% · Belgium: only games against sides at Turkiye's level · each game weighed by who it was against
TURKIYE GOALS
Turkiye Under 1.5 goalsLEANIN CODES
1.39
BEL 6 of 10 (60%) · TUR 4 of 5 (80%)68.5%
Turkiye scored under 1.5 in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Belgium conceded under 1.5 in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · Belgium: only games against sides at Turkiye's level · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5BACKUPPAGE ONLY
1.16
BEL 4 of 5 (80%) · TUR 9 of 10 (90%)85.2%
Belgium: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores · Belgium: only games against sides at Turkiye's level · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.24
BEL 4 of 5 (80%) · TUR 7 of 10 (70%)74.7%
Belgium: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores · Belgium: only games against sides at Turkiye's level · each game weighed by who it was against
CARDS
1.16
BEL 5 of 8 (62%) · TUR 6 of 8 (75%)83%
Belgium's games: over 2.5 cards in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye's games: over 2.5 cards in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · each game weighed by who it was against
Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); 2nd Half - Belgium Over/Under: Over 0.5 (the numbers (59%) and the records (80%) are 21 points apart, and nothing settles it); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))
TRENDS
Belgium have scored in 80% of their games.
Turkiye have scored in 70% of their games.
Belgium kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.
Turkiye kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.