Lithuania vs Andorra
Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Wed 30 Sep, 17:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.
Form. Lithuania have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L L. Andorra have won none, drawn two and lost eight of their last ten, 0.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L D.
The numbers. Lithuania score 1.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Lithuania average 9.7 shots (3.2 on target), 3.5 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 47% of the ball. Andorra score 0.4 and concede two a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. Andorra average 4.2 shots (1.2 on target), 1.3 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 28% of the ball.
The case against. Andorra's record still gives them 24% to win.
The read. Lithuania to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Lithuania the likelier winners; Lithuania are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The bets. Best bet: Lithuania or Draw at 1.16, rated 76% (Lithuania unbeaten in 3 of 5 at home; Andorra failed to win 5 of 5 away). Backup: Lithuania or Both Teams Score at 1.24. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Lithuania 2-1 Andorra (10% chance).
The agreed story. Lithuania or the draw, an open game.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).