GREGRE

19:45Sun 4 Oct

GER

GER

Greece vs Germany

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. This is a UEFA Nations League, League A, 4 clash. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It's at Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki. Clement Turpin will referee.

What's at stake. Greece sit top with 7 points after 3 games, 2 points clear of Netherlands. Germany are third on 4 points after 3 games, 1 point behind Netherlands and 4 points clear of Serbia. A win would lift Germany above Netherlands.

Form. Greece have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W D W. Germany have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D D L.

The numbers. Greece score 1.8 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 12.9 shots (4.4 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 38% of the ball. Germany score 2.3 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. They average 16.5 shots (6.4 on target), 7.2 corners and 1.0 cards a game, with 65% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last two meetings Greece have won one, drawn none and lost one. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met on 27 Sep 2026 it finished Greece 1-0 Germany; Greece had 8 shots to 16, 24% of the ball, five yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 59%.

The case against. Greece's record still gives them 35% to win.

The read. Germany or the draw. A draw is live. Germany are the stronger side on form and the table.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Germany or draw and over 1.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Germany 1UP (the signs point different ways); 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Greece 1-1 Germany (14% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Germany or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

GRE 9 of 10 (90%) · GER 8 of 10 (80%)79.8%

Germany: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Greece: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · each game weighed by who it was against

Germany or Draw (1UP)IN CODES

1.18

GRE 4 of 5 (80%) · GER 9 of 10 (90%)78.8%

Germany scored first 3 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 4 · led or was unbeaten in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Greece trailed or failed to win in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against

Germany win or both teams scoreIN CODES

1.13

GRE 9 of 10 (90%) · GER 7 of 10 (70%)77.5%

Germany: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Greece: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · each game weighed by who it was against

Germany or Over 2.5 GoalsLEANHELD · the odds board 79%

1.26

GRE 7 of 10 (70%) · GER 8 of 10 (80%)55.1%

Germany: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Greece: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 68% · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.10

GRE 9 of 10 (90%) · GER 8 of 10 (80%)98.3%

Greece: under 5.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Germany: under 5.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 93% · each game weighed by who it was against

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.25

GRE 8 of 10 (80%) · GER 8 of 10 (80%)92.5%

Greece: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Germany: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 88% · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 1.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.17

GRE 8 of 10 (80%) · GER 8 of 10 (80%)67.7%

Greece: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Germany: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · each game weighed by who it was against

GREECE GOALS

Greece Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.38

GRE 8 of 10 (80%) · GER 6 of 10 (60%)56%

Greece scored in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Germany conceded in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 78% · each game weighed by who it was against

GERMANY GOALS

Germany Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.14

GRE 9 of 10 (90%) · GER 7 of 10 (70%)71.5%

Germany scored in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Greece conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.33

GRE 7 of 10 (70%) · GER 8 of 10 (80%)78.7%

Greece: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Germany: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Germany or draw and over 1.5 goals (the numbers (43%) and the records (59%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Germany 1UP (the numbers (49%) and the records (58%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 (the numbers (72%) and the records (94%) are 23 points apart, and nothing settles it)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.9%

Greece goals →

Germany goals ↓

0-010%

1-011%

2-07%

3-03%

4-00.9%

5-00.2%

0-110%

1-114%

2-18%

3-13%

4-11.0%

5-10.2%

0-26%

1-27%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.6%

5-20.1%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-30.7%

4-30.2%

5-30.1%

0-40.7%

1-40.8%

2-40.5%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.2%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).

FORM · LAST 10

GREECEWWLLLWDWWD1.70 PPG

GERMANYWWWWWLDDLW2.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

GREECE HOMExGERMANY AWAY

1.80SCORED A GAME2.301.50CONCEDED A GAME0.7030%CLEAN SHEETS40%0%FAILED TO SCORE33%5.00CORNERS A GAME7.202.20CARDS A GAME1.00

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2

GREECE 1 · 50%DRAW 0GERMANY 1 · 50%

2012-06-22Greece 2 – 4 Germany

2026-09-27Greece 1 – 0 Germany

TRENDS

Greece have scored in 80% of their games.

Germany have scored in 90% of their games.

Greece kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Germany kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards