TURTUR

19:45Mon 28 Sep

ITA

ITA

Turkiye vs Italy

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. This is a UEFA Nations League League A, 2 fixture on Mon 28 Sep, 19:45 Lagos time. It takes place at Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu. Michael Oliver is the referee.

What's at stake. Turkiye sit third on 0 points after one game, three points behind France and level with Italy. A win would bring them level with France. Italy sit fourth on 0 points, level with Turkiye, and a win would lift them above Turkiye.

Form. Turkiye have six wins, one draw and three losses in their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first, are L, W, L, L, W. In this competition Turkiye have gone L. Italy have seven wins, no draws and three losses in their last ten, 2.1 points a game, with recent results L, W, L, W, W, and a loss in this competition.

The numbers. Turkiye score 1.7 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six at home, keeping two clean sheets and being shut out twice. They average 17.9 shots (4.6 on target), 6.2 corners and 2.6 cards a game, holding 57% of the ball. Italy score 2.3 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and two goalless games. They average 22.5 shots (7.8 on target), 7.9 corners and 1.5 cards a game, holding 62% of the ball.

Head to head. The last meeting was on 11 Jun 2021, when Italy beat Turkiye 3-0. Turkiye managed three shots to Italy's 24, had 37% of the ball and received two yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. Both sides show open games in goals for and against, pushing the over 2.5 goals mark to 48%.

The case against. Italy's record still gives them a 42% chance to win.

The read. Turkiye to win. Their goals for and against make Turkiye the likelier winners; Turkiye are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Turkiye.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Turkiye or Both Teams Score (the signs point different ways); Turkiye Over 0.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Turkiye or Draw (1UP) (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Turkiye 2-1 Italy (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Turkiye or Over 1.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

no price yet

TUR 4 of 6 (67%) · ITA 10 of 10 (100%)69%

Turkiye: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Italy: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 84% · each game weighed by who it was against

Turkiye or Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.36

TUR 4 of 6 (67%) · ITA 7 of 10 (70%)68.1%

Turkiye: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Italy: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 73% · each game weighed by who it was against

Turkiye 1UPLEANPAGE ONLY

1.69

TUR 3 of 5 (60%) · ITA 4 of 6 (67%)53.3%

Turkiye scored first 2 of last 5, led in 3 · led in 4 of 6 at home · Italy trailed in 2 of 6 (last 10, all venues)

Turkiye or Draw & Over 1.5LEANPAGE ONLY

1.80

TUR 3 of 6 (50%) · ITA 3 of 10 (30%)52.6%

Turkiye: the bet landed in 3 of 6 at home · Italy: the bet landed in 3 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 56% · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.09

TUR 6 of 6 (100%) · ITA 9 of 10 (90%)95.9%

Turkiye: under 5.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home · Italy: under 5.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · each game weighed by who it was against

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.23

TUR 4 of 6 (67%) · ITA 7 of 10 (70%)71.7%

Turkiye: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 6 at home · Italy: under 4.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 1.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.19

TUR 3 of 6 (50%) · ITA 10 of 10 (100%)69%

Turkiye: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 6 at home · Italy: over 1.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 77% · each game weighed by who it was against

ITALY GOALS

Italy Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.23

TUR 8 of 10 (80%) · ITA 4 of 6 (67%)68.9%

Italy scored in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Turkiye conceded in 4 of 6 at home · both last 10: 68% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.19

TUR 5 of 6 (83%) · ITA 9 of 10 (90%)79.5%

Turkiye: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Italy: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsIN CODES

1.15

TUR 4 of 5 (80%) · ITA 6 of 8 (75%)79.5%

Turkiye's games: over 2.5 cards in 4 of 5 at home · Italy's games: over 2.5 cards in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 78% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Turkiye or Both Teams Score (the numbers (83%) and the records (63%) are 20 points apart, and nothing settles it); Turkiye Over 0.5 goals (the numbers (83%) and the records (63%) are 20 points apart, and nothing settles it); Turkiye or Draw (1UP) (the numbers (81%) and the records (53%) are 28 points apart, and nothing settles it)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 9.7%

Turkiye goals →

Italy goals ↓

0-06%

1-09%

2-08%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.8%

0-15%

1-112%

2-110%

3-16%

4-13%

5-10.9%

0-23%

1-26%

2-26%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.5%

0-31%

1-32%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.6%

5-30.2%

0-40.4%

1-40.7%

2-40.6%

3-40.4%

4-40.2%

5-40.1%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).

FORM · LAST 10

TURKIYEWWWDWWLLWL1.90 PPG

ITALYLWWWWWWLWL2.10 PPG

THE NUMBERS

TURKIYE HOMExITALY AWAY

1.90SCORED A GAME2.301.00CONCEDED A GAME1.4030%CLEAN SHEETS50%6.25CORNERS A GAME7.882.62CARDS A GAME1.502.09xG2.881.40xG AGAINST0.94

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 1

TURKIYE 0 · 0%DRAW 0ITALY 1 · 100%

2021-06-11Turkiye 0 – 3 Italy

TRENDS

Turkiye have scored in 70% of their games.

Italy have scored in 90% of their games.

Turkiye kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Italy kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards