MYMON

11:00Tue 29 Sep

YOK

Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama F Marinos

CLASS D

THE READ

Match details. J.League Cup, Round of 64. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at ND Soft Stadium Yamagata.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Montedio Yamagata have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W L. In this competition Montedio Yamagata have gone W. Yokohama F Marinos have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D L.

The numbers. Montedio Yamagata score 1.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Montedio Yamagata average 10.4 shots (4.2 on target), 4.0 corners and 0.5 cards a game. Yokohama F Marinos score 1.7 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets. Yokohama F Marinos average 9.6 shots (3.3 on target), 3.1 corners and 1.4 cards a game.

Head to head. In the last three meetings Montedio Yamagata have won one, drawn one and lost one. None of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 11 Jul 2015, it finished Montedio Yamagata 1-1 Yokohama F Marinos.

The case against. A knockout game (Round of 64) with penalties if level, and Yokohama F Marinos are not clearly stronger. Montedio Yamagata's record still gives them 38% to win.

The read. Yokohama F Marinos or the draw. A tight game. Yokohama F Marinos are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Yokohama F Marinos. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 21%. Three of the last three meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Yokohama F Marinos or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Yokohama F Marinos or draw and under 2.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Yokohama F Marinos or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Montedio Yamagata 1-1 Yokohama F Marinos (14% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Yokohama F Marinos or Under 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.17

MON 8 of 10 (80%) · YOK 5 of 5 (100%)85%

Yokohama F Marinos: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Montedio Yamagata: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · both last 10: 85% · H2H 3 of 3 · the call is Yokohama F Marinos or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 64) with penalties if level, and Yokohama F Marinos are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

Yokohama F Marinos win or both teams scoreTAKEN DOWNHELD · the odds board 88%

1.13

MON 10 of 10 (100%) · YOK 2 of 5 (40%)66.6%

Yokohama F Marinos: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Montedio Yamagata: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · both last 10: 75% · H2H 2 of 3 · the call is Yokohama F Marinos or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 64) with penalties if level, and Yokohama F Marinos are not clearly stronger (rule 8)

Yokohama F Marinos (Draw No Bet)LEANPAGE ONLY

1.31

MON 6 of 8 (75%) · YOK 2 of 5 (40%)64.3%

Yokohama F Marinos won 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Montedio Yamagata lost 2 of 5 at home (draws left out) · both last 10: 62% · won 4, refunded 1, lost 4

Yokohama F Marinos or draw and under 3.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.71

MON 2 of 5 (40%) · YOK 8 of 10 (80%)60.9%

Montedio Yamagata: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · Yokohama F Marinos: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65% · H2H 2 of 3

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.16

MON 5 of 5 (100%) · YOK 8 of 10 (80%)92.5%

Montedio Yamagata: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Yokohama F Marinos: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · H2H 3 of 3

MONTEDIO YAMAGATA GOALS

Montedio Yamagata Under 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.31

MON 2 of 5 (40%) · YOK 8 of 10 (80%)66.3%

Montedio Yamagata scored under 1.5 in 2 of 5 at home · Yokohama F Marinos conceded under 1.5 in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · H2H 3 of 3

Montedio Yamagata Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.49

MON 4 of 5 (80%) · YOK 4 of 10 (40%)57.1%

Montedio Yamagata scored in 4 of 5 at home · Yokohama F Marinos conceded in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 50% · H2H 2 of 3

YOKOHAMA F MARINOS GOALS

Yokohama F Marinos Over 0.5 goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 87%

1.15

MON 10 of 10 (100%) · YOK 2 of 5 (40%)66.6%

Yokohama F Marinos scored in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Montedio Yamagata conceded in 2 of 5 at home · both last 10: 75% · H2H 2 of 3

Left off the list: Yokohama F Marinos or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Yokohama F Marinos or draw and under 2.5 goals (the numbers (42%) and the records (51%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Yokohama F Marinos or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.7%

Montedio Yamagata goals →

Yokohama F Marinos goals ↓

0-010%

1-09%

2-06%

3-02%

4-00.6%

5-00.1%

0-111%

1-114%

2-17%

3-13%

4-10.7%

5-10.2%

0-28%

1-28%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.5%

5-20.1%

0-33%

1-34%

2-32%

3-30.8%

4-30.2%

5-30.0%

0-41%

1-41%

2-40.7%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.3%

1-50.3%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

MONTEDIO YAMAGATALWLWWLWLLW1.50 PPG

YOKOHAMA F MARINOSWLWWWLDWDW2.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

MONTEDIO YAMAGATA HOMExYOKOHAMA F MARINOS AWAY

1.10SCORED A GAME1.700.70CONCEDED A GAME0.9050%CLEAN SHEETS60%30%FAILED TO SCORE35%4.00CORNERS A GAME3.110.50CARDS A GAME1.44

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.50POINTS A GAME1.75+0.50GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.50-1.6SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-2.51.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.68LEAGUE GAMES8

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

75%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

20%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

92%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

MONTEDIO YAMAGATA OR DRAW

54%

NO · 80/85

YOKOHAMA F MARINOS OR DRAW

57%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

MONTEDIO YAMAGATAxYOKOHAMA F MARINOS

5GAMES51.20SCORED A GAME1.601.00CONCEDED A GAME1.002.2GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.680%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS20%20%BOTH SCORE60%1.8CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–8.8CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 3

MONTEDIO YAMAGATA 1 · 33%DRAW 1YOKOHAMA F MARINOS 1 · 33%

1 of 3BOTH TEAMS SCORED

2 of 3OVER 1.5 GOALS

0 of 3OVER 2.5 GOALS

0 of 3OVER 3.5 GOALS

2015-05-02Montedio Yamagata 1 – 0 Yokohama F Marinos

2015-06-03Montedio Yamagata 0 – 2 Yokohama F Marinos

2015-07-11Montedio Yamagata 1 – 1 Yokohama F Marinos

TRENDS

Montedio Yamagata have scored in 70% of their games.

Yokohama F Marinos have scored in 100% of their games.

Montedio Yamagata failed to score in 30% of their games.

Yokohama F Marinos failed to score in 35% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againsthead to headcornerscards