MYMAT

11:00Tue 29 Sep

ALB

Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs Albirex Niigata

CLASS D

THE READ

Match details. J.League Cup, Round of 64. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at Sunpro Alwin, Matsumoto.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Matsumoto Yamaga FC have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L D D. Albirex Niigata have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L W. In this competition Albirex Niigata have gone W.

The numbers. Matsumoto Yamaga FC score one and concede two a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Matsumoto Yamaga FC average 11.5 shots (4.4 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.3 cards a game. Albirex Niigata score 1.4 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Albirex Niigata average 9.3 shots (4.4 on target), 3.0 corners and 0.5 cards a game.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings Matsumoto Yamaga FC have won two, drawn three and lost five. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Matsumoto Yamaga FC won one, two were drawn and Albirex Niigata won one. The last time they met, on 9 Apr 2025, it finished Matsumoto Yamaga FC 0-2 Albirex Niigata.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 54%; seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 54%.

The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Matsumoto Yamaga FC 1-1 Albirex Niigata (11% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.17

MAT 4 of 5 (80%) · ALB 3 of 5 (60%)83.6%

Matsumoto Yamaga FC: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Albirex Niigata: under 4.5 goals in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 85% · H2H 6 of 6

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.34

MAT 4 of 5 (80%) · ALB 5 of 5 (100%)79.2%

Matsumoto Yamaga FC: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Albirex Niigata: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores

Left off the list: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 11.3%

Matsumoto Yamaga FC goals →

Albirex Niigata goals ↓

0-05%

1-06%

2-05%

3-02%

4-00.9%

5-00.3%

0-16%

1-111%

2-18%

3-14%

4-12%

5-10.5%

0-26%

1-29%

2-27%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-33%

1-35%

2-34%

3-32%

4-30.7%

5-30.2%

0-41%

1-42%

2-41%

3-40.7%

4-40.3%

5-40.1%

0-50.4%

1-50.6%

2-50.5%

3-50.2%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

MATSUMOTO YAMAGA FCWLDLDDDLDW1.10 PPG

ALBIREX NIIGATALWWLWWLWWD1.90 PPG

THE NUMBERS

MATSUMOTO YAMAGA FC HOMExALBIREX NIIGATA AWAY

1.10SCORED A GAME1.301.20CONCEDED A GAME1.7040%CLEAN SHEETS20%30%FAILED TO SCORE15%3.00CORNERS A GAME3.001.30CARDS A GAME0.50

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

DRAW OR ALBIREX NIIGATA (1UP)

–

137 OF 146

NO PRICE YET

The tips call a clear winner and every tip has the favourite winning by 2+.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.00POINTS A GAME1.86-0.25GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.29+1.4SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-2.41.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.08LEAGUE GAMES7

Albirex Niigata: the quality side - more points a game, better form (last 5).

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

54%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

52%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

80%

NO · 85/90

MATSUMOTO YAMAGA FC OR DRAW

63%

NO · 80/85

ALBIREX NIIGATA OR DRAW

77%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 7 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

MATSUMOTO YAMAGA FCxALBIREX NIIGATA

5GAMES50.80SCORED A GAME1.601.00CONCEDED A GAME2.001.8GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.660%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%60%BOTH SCORE60%2.2CARDS IN THEIR GAMES3.212.4CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES9.8

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10

MATSUMOTO YAMAGA FC 2 · 20%DRAW 3ALBIREX NIIGATA 5 · 50%

4 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED

8 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS

3 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS

1 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS

2015-05-02Matsumoto Yamaga FC 1 – 2 Albirex Niigata

2015-06-03Matsumoto Yamaga FC 0 – 3 Albirex Niigata

2015-10-17Matsumoto Yamaga FC 0 – 2 Albirex Niigata

2018-03-03Matsumoto Yamaga FC 1 – 1 Albirex Niigata

2018-07-07Matsumoto Yamaga FC 2 – 0 Albirex Niigata

2020-07-11Matsumoto Yamaga FC 0 – 1 Albirex Niigata

2020-12-06Matsumoto Yamaga FC 3 – 1 Albirex Niigata

2021-05-09Matsumoto Yamaga FC 0 – 0 Albirex Niigata

TRENDS

Matsumoto Yamaga FC have scored in 60% of their games.

Albirex Niigata have scored in 70% of their games.

Matsumoto Yamaga FC failed to score in 30% of their games.

Albirex Niigata failed to score in 15% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againsthead to headcornerscards