Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo vs Fagiano Okayama
Match details. J.League Cup, Round of 64. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at Sapporo Dome.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D L W. In this competition Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo have gone W. Fagiano Okayama have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W L.
The numbers. Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo score 1.2 and concede 2.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo average 8.0 shots (2.9 on target), 2.0 corners and 1.3 cards a game. Fagiano Okayama score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Fagiano Okayama average 11.0 shots (3.1 on target), 6.0 corners and 1.9 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo have won three, drawn three and lost three. Four of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo won one, two were drawn and Fagiano Okayama won one. The last time they met, on 3 Sep 2016, it finished Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1-2 Fagiano Okayama.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 76% against the records' 49%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%; five of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The read. No firm call: Fagiano Okayama are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make Fagiano Okayama the likelier winners; Fagiano Okayama are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Fagiano Okayama.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1-1 Fagiano Okayama (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).