TCTOC

11:00Tue 29 Sep

SAN

Tochigi City FC vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

CLASS D

THE READ

Match details. J.League Cup, Round of 64. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at City Football Station, Tochigi.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Tochigi City FC have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D W. In this competition Tochigi City FC have gone W. Sanfrecce Hiroshima have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W D.

The numbers. Tochigi City FC score 1.9 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Tochigi City FC average 10.9 shots (4.6 on target), 3.3 corners and 2.3 cards a game. Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 1.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets. Sanfrecce Hiroshima average 16.9 shots (6.8 on target), 7.4 corners and 1.1 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 88% against the records' 52%.

The read. No firm call: Sanfrecce Hiroshima are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Sanfrecce Hiroshima are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Tochigi City FC 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima (9% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

TOC 4 of 5 (80%) · SAN 9 of 10 (90%)86.7%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · Tochigi City FC: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90%

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

TOC 9 of 10 (90%) · SAN 4 of 5 (80%)86.7%

Tochigi City FC: over 0.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sanfrecce Hiroshima: over 0.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 90%

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.13

TOC 9 of 10 (90%) · SAN 2 of 5 (40%)70%

Tochigi City FC: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sanfrecce Hiroshima: over 1.5 goals in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 80%

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.42

TOC 8 of 10 (80%) · SAN 2 of 5 (40%)63.3%

Tochigi City FC: over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sanfrecce Hiroshima: over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 70%

BOTH TEAMS SCORE

Both Teams to Score - YesLEANPAGE ONLY

1.73

TOC 6 of 10 (60%) · SAN 2 of 5 (40%)51.7%

Tochigi City FC: both scored in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sanfrecce Hiroshima: both scored in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 55%

TOCHIGI CITY FC GOALS

Tochigi City FC Under 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.23

TOC 5 of 10 (50%) · SAN 4 of 5 (80%)66.7%

Tochigi City FC scored under 1.5 in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sanfrecce Hiroshima conceded under 1.5 in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 70%

Tochigi City FC Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.62

TOC 8 of 10 (80%) · SAN 2 of 5 (40%)61.7%

Tochigi City FC scored in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Sanfrecce Hiroshima conceded in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 65%

SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA GOALS

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

TOC 4 of 5 (80%) · SAN 7 of 10 (70%)76.7%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scored in 4 of 5 away · Tochigi City FC conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80%

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 8.6%

Tochigi City FC goals →

Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals ↓

0-06%

1-07%

2-06%

3-03%

4-00.9%

5-00.3%

0-18%

1-112%

2-18%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-26%

1-29%

2-26%

3-23%

4-21.0%

5-20.3%

0-33%

1-34%

2-33%

3-31%

4-30.5%

5-30.1%

0-41%

1-42%

2-41%

3-40.5%

4-40.2%

5-40.0%

0-50.3%

1-50.5%

2-50.3%

3-50.1%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

TOCHIGI CITY FCWWWLWWDLLL1.60 PPG

SANFRECCE HIROSHIMAWWWDWDWLWW2.30 PPG

THE NUMBERS

TOCHIGI CITY FC HOMExSANFRECCE HIROSHIMA AWAY

1.90SCORED A GAME2.501.40CONCEDED A GAME0.7030%CLEAN SHEETS50%20%FAILED TO SCORE10%3.30CORNERS A GAME7.402.30CARDS A GAME1.10

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.25POINTS A GAME2.12+0.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.75-4.8SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+9.50.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.08LEAGUE GAMES8

Sanfrecce Hiroshima: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, more shots than it allows, better form (last 5).

SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA 0:2 HANDICAP

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373 OF 433

NO PRICE YET

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

83%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

73%

OKAY · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

63%

NO · 85/90

TOCHIGI CITY FC OR DRAW

44%

NO · 80/85

SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA OR DRAW

69%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

TOCHIGI CITY FCxSANFRECCE HIROSHIMA

5GAMES51.20SCORED A GAME2.402.20CONCEDED A GAME0.803.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.280%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%60%BOTH SCORE40%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Tochigi City FC have scored in 80% of their games.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima have scored in 90% of their games.

Tochigi City FC failed to score in 20% of their games.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima failed to score in 10% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstcornerscards