STSAG

11:00Tue 29 Sep

TOK

Sagan Tosu vs Tokyo Verdy

CLASS D

THE READ

Match details. J.League Cup, Round of 64. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, Tosu.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Sagan Tosu have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L W. In this competition Sagan Tosu have gone W. Tokyo Verdy have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W D L. In this competition Tokyo Verdy have gone W.

The numbers. Sagan Tosu score 1.2 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Tokyo Verdy score 0.9 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal.

Head to head. Tokyo Verdy have won all of the last three meetings. None of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. The last time they met, on 16 Jul 2025, it finished Sagan Tosu 0-1 Tokyo Verdy.

The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 34%. Three of the last three meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Sagan Tosu 1-1 Tokyo Verdy (14% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

HALVES

1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY

1.17

SAG 8 of 10 (80%) · TOK 9 of 10 (90%)87.1%

Sagan Tosu: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Tokyo Verdy: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · H2H 3 of 3 · on half-time scores

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.36

SAG 7 of 10 (70%) · TOK 8 of 10 (80%)78.6%

Sagan Tosu: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Tokyo Verdy: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 3 of 3 · on half-time scores

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 14%

Sagan Tosu goals →

Tokyo Verdy goals ↓

0-011%

1-011%

2-08%

3-03%

4-01.0%

5-00.2%

0-110%

1-114%

2-18%

3-13%

4-11%

5-10.3%

0-26%

1-27%

2-24%

3-22%

4-20.6%

5-20.1%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-30.7%

4-30.2%

5-30.1%

0-40.6%

1-40.7%

2-40.4%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

SAGAN TOSUDLWDWWLLLL1.10 PPG

TOKYO VERDYDLDWLLDWDL1.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

SAGAN TOSU HOMExTOKYO VERDY AWAY

1.20SCORED A GAME0.901.30CONCEDED A GAME1.3030%CLEAN SHEETS30%15%FAILED TO SCORE25%

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.00POINTS A GAME0.33-0.38GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-1.33+2.5SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-4.20.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME0.48LEAGUE GAMES6

Sagan Tosu: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, more shots than it allows.

SAGAN TOSU 2:0 HANDICAP

–

389 OF 413

NO PRICE YET

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

80%

OKAY · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

32%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

98%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

SAGAN TOSU OR DRAW

71%

NO · 80/85

TOKYO VERDY OR DRAW

50%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

SAGAN TOSUxTOKYO VERDY

5GAMES51.00SCORED A GAME0.401.60CONCEDED A GAME1.602.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.080%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS20%40%BOTH SCORE40%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES3.4–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES10.4

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 3

SAGAN TOSU 0 · 0%DRAW 0TOKYO VERDY 3 · 100%

0 of 3BOTH TEAMS SCORED

2 of 3OVER 1.5 GOALS

0 of 3OVER 2.5 GOALS

0 of 3OVER 3.5 GOALS

2024-05-03Sagan Tosu 0 – 2 Tokyo Verdy

2024-09-22Sagan Tosu 0 – 2 Tokyo Verdy

2025-07-16Sagan Tosu 0 – 1 Tokyo Verdy

TRENDS

Sagan Tosu failed to score in 15% of their games.

Tokyo Verdy failed to score in 25% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againsthead to head