Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Nagoya Grampus
Match details. J.League Cup, Round of 64. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Giravanz Kitakyushu have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L L. In this competition Giravanz Kitakyushu have gone W. Nagoya Grampus have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L W.
The numbers. Giravanz Kitakyushu score one and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Giravanz Kitakyushu average 11.0 shots (3.8 on target), 5.2 corners and 1.1 cards a game. Nagoya Grampus score one and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and four games without a goal.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 8% against the records' 45%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.
The read. No firm call: Giravanz Kitakyushu are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make Giravanz Kitakyushu the likelier winners; Giravanz Kitakyushu are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Giravanz Kitakyushu.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Nagoya Grampus or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs Giravanz Kitakyushu). Predicted score: Giravanz Kitakyushu 1-1 Nagoya Grampus (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).