Tigres UANL vs Deportivo Toluca FC
Match details. Liga MX, Apertura - 11. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 04:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Universitario, Monterey. The referee is Daniel Quintero Huitron.
What's at stake. Tigres UANL are 15th on 10 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Atlante FC, level on points with Santos Laguna. A win would take them above Atlante FC. Deportivo Toluca FC are 1st on 20 points after 10 games, level on points with Club America.
Form. Tigres UANL have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D D D. In this competition Tigres UANL have gone W L D D D W. Deportivo Toluca FC have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W W. In this competition Deportivo Toluca FC have gone D L W W W W.
The numbers. Tigres UANL score one and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. Tigres UANL average 17.0 shots (4.5 on target), 6.9 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 55% of the ball. Deportivo Toluca FC score 1.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets. Deportivo Toluca FC average 18.4 shots (5.9 on target), 5.8 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 57% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Tigres UANL have won three, drawn two and lost three. Four of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Tigres UANL won two, one was drawn and Deportivo Toluca FC won one. The last time they met, on 18 Jan 2026, it finished Tigres UANL 0-0 Deportivo Toluca FC: Tigres UANL had 7 shots to 11, 49% of the ball, eight yellow cards.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.
The read. Deportivo Toluca FC to win. An open game. Deportivo Toluca FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Deportivo Toluca FC.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Tigres UANL Over 0.5 goals (Deportivo Toluca FC's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Deportivo Toluca FC or draw and over 1.5 goals (the signs point different ways); 1X2 - 2UP: Deportivo Toluca FC (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Tigres UANL 1-2 Deportivo Toluca FC (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).