Match details. UEFA Nations League. Kick-off is Fri 2 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. Cyprus have two wins, three draws and five losses in their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five are D L L W D. Armenia have two wins, no draws and eight losses in their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five are L W L L L.
The numbers. Cyprus score 1.2 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. They average 11.7 shots (4.7 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.7 cards a game. Armenia score 0.8 and concede 3.1 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and five games without a goal. They average 8.1 shots (3.0 on target), 6.0 corners and 1.4 cards a game.
The case against. Armenia's record still gives them 41% to win.
The read. Cyprus to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Cyprus the likelier winners; Cyprus are the stronger side on form and the table. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.35, 79% on the records (Cyprus: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10; Armenia: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10). The safer one: Cyprus or Armenia at 1.33 (84%). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.29. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Armenia or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs Cyprus); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Cyprus 2-1 Armenia (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).