WALWAL

19:45Sun 4 Oct

DEN

DEN

Wales vs Denmark

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. UEFA Nations League, League A - 4. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. The game is at Cardiff City Stadium. Irfan Peljto is the referee.

What's at stake. Wales sit 4th on 3 points after 3 games, level with Norway. A win would lift them above Norway. Denmark are 2nd on 3 points after 3 games, 6 points behind Portugal and level with Norway.

Team news. D. James is Wales' top scorer. Wales' line-up is confirmed. F. Jörgensen is Denmark's first-choice keeper. Denmark's line-up is confirmed.

Form. Wales have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D W. Denmark have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L D W.

The numbers. In their last five at home Wales score three and concede 1.4 a game, with one clean sheet. Wales average 12.2 shots (5.4 on target), 6.3 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 44% possession. Denmark score 2.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Denmark average 17.7 shots (7.1 on target), 6.6 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 56% possession.

Head to head. Denmark have won all of the last four meetings. Two of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last meeting on 27 Sep 2026 ended Wales 0-2 Denmark; Wales had 10 shots to 20, 38% possession and three yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%.

The case against. Denmark are without F. Jörgensen in goal. Wales' record still gives them 36% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.

The read. Denmark or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Denmark are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Denmark; the meetings favour Denmark. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Denmark or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); 2nd Half - Denmark Over/Under: Over 0.5 (the signs point different ways); 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Wales 1-2 Denmark (9% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Denmark or Over 1.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

no price yet

WAL 5 of 5 (100%) · DEN 5 of 5 (100%)91.5%

Denmark: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · Wales: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · both last 10: 99% · H2H 4 of 4 · each game weighed by who it was against · the call is Denmark or the draw: Denmark without F. Jörgensen (keeper) (rule 3)

Denmark (Draw No Bet)LEANPAGE ONLY

1.45

WAL 5 of 8 (62%) · DEN 4 of 9 (44%)72.2%

Denmark won 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Wales lost 4 of 9 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 64% · H2H 4 of 4 · each game weighed by who it was against · won 3, refunded 2, lost 5

Denmark or draw and over 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.55

WAL 2 of 5 (40%) · DEN 3 of 5 (60%)68%

Wales: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · Denmark: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 57% · H2H 4 of 4 · each game weighed by who it was against

Denmark or Draw (1UP)LEANHELD · the odds board 84%

1.19

WAL 3 of 5 (60%) · DEN 6 of 9 (67%)63%

Denmark scored first 2 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 3 · led or was unbeaten in 6 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Wales trailed or failed to win in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against

Denmark 1UPTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.45

WAL 2 of 5 (40%) · DEN 5 of 9 (56%)54.6%

Denmark scored first 2 of last 5, led in 2 · led in 5 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Wales trailed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against · the call is Denmark or the draw: Denmark without F. Jörgensen (keeper) (rule 3)

DENMARK GOALS

Denmark Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.20

WAL 5 of 5 (100%) · DEN 4 of 5 (80%)79%

Denmark scored in 5 of 5 away · Wales conceded in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 99% · H2H 4 of 4 · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.35

WAL 4 of 5 (80%) · DEN 5 of 5 (100%)87.1%

Wales: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Denmark: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 82% · H2H 3 of 4 · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Denmark or Over 2.5 Goals (the numbers (65%) and the records (88%) are 24 points apart, and nothing settles it); 2nd Half - Denmark Over/Under: Over 0.5 (the numbers (54%) and the records (79%) are 25 points apart, and nothing settles it); 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 (the numbers (77%) and the records (97%) are 20 points apart, and nothing settles it); Denmark win or both teams score (the numbers (75%) and the records (100%) are 25 points apart, and nothing settles it)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 8.6%

Wales goals →

Denmark goals ↓

0-08%

1-08%

2-05%

3-02%

4-00.7%

5-00.2%

0-110%

1-113%

2-18%

3-13%

4-10.9%

5-10.2%

0-27%

1-29%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.6%

5-20.2%

0-33%

1-34%

2-32%

3-31.0%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-41%

1-41%

2-40.8%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.3%

1-50.4%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

WALESWLWLWWDLLW1.60 PPG

DENMARKWWWDLWDLWL1.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

WALES HOMExDENMARK AWAY

2.00SCORED A GAME2.701.40CONCEDED A GAME1.5030%CLEAN SHEETS40%67%FAILED TO SCORE0%6.30CORNERS A GAME6.601.70CARDS A GAME1.40

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 4

WALES 0 · 0%DRAW 0DENMARK 4 · 100%

1 of 4BOTH TEAMS SCORED

4 of 4OVER 1.5 GOALS

2 of 4OVER 2.5 GOALS

1 of 4OVER 3.5 GOALS

2018-09-09Wales 0 – 2 Denmark

2018-11-16Wales 1 – 2 Denmark

2021-06-26Wales 0 – 4 Denmark

2026-09-27Wales 0 – 2 Denmark

TRENDS

Wales have scored in 80% of their games.

Denmark have scored in 100% of their games.

Wales kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Denmark kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards