KYRKGZ

15:00Mon 28 Sep

MDV

MAL

Kyrgyzstan vs Maldives

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Mon 28 Sep, 15:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.

Form. Kyrgyzstan have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D D D. Maldives have won one, drawn one and lost eight of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L L.

The numbers. Kyrgyzstan score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Kyrgyzstan average 8.7 shots (3.4 on target), 3.2 corners and 1.6 cards a game. Maldives score 0.5 and concede 2.2 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Maldives average 1.3 corners a game.

Head to head. The last time they met, on 21 May 2014, it finished Kyrgyzstan 0-2 Maldives.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 94% against the records' 66%.

The read. No firm call: Kyrgyzstan are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Kyrgyzstan the likelier winners; Kyrgyzstan are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Kyrgyzstan. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 41%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Kyrgyzstan 1-0 Maldives (12% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (Kyrgyzstan the favourite), a tight game.

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.20

KGZ 100% of 5 · MDV 100% of 697%

Kyrgyzstan: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Maldives: under 5.5 goals in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 100% · each game weighed by who it was against

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.46

KGZ 79% of 5 · MDV 83% of 684.9%

Kyrgyzstan: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Maldives: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 89% · each game weighed by who it was against

KYRGYZSTAN GOALS

Kyrgyzstan Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

KGZ 100% of 5 · MDV 100% of 676.9%

Kyrgyzstan scored in 5 of 5 at home · Maldives conceded in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 85% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

1st Half Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.29

KGZ 100% of 5 · MDV 100% of 697%

Kyrgyzstan: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Maldives: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 100% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals (the numbers (73%) and the records (99%) are 26 points apart, and nothing settles it)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–0 11.9%

Kyrgyzstan goals →

Maldives goals ↓

0-08%

1-012%

2-011%

3-07%

4-03%

5-01%

0-16%

1-112%

2-110%

3-16%

4-13%

5-10.9%

0-23%

1-25%

2-24%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-30.8%

1-31%

2-31%

3-30.7%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.2%

1-40.3%

2-40.3%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.1%

2-50.0%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

KYRGYZSTANWLLLWDDDLL0.90 PPG

MALDIVESLLDLLLLLLW0.40 PPG

THE NUMBERS

KYRGYZSTAN HOMExMALDIVES AWAY

1.10SCORED A GAME0.601.80CONCEDED A GAME2.0010%CLEAN SHEETS0%75%FAILED TO SCORE75%3.25CORNERS A GAME1.33

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 1

KYRGYZSTAN 0 · 0%DRAW 0MALDIVES 1 · 100%

2014-05-21Kyrgyzstan 0 – 2 Maldives

TRENDS

Kyrgyzstan have scored in 70% of their games.

Maldives have scored in 50% of their games.

Kyrgyzstan kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

Maldives kept a clean sheet in 0% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headcornerscards