Zambia vs Togo
Match details. This is an Africa Cup of Nations Qualification Group Stage, 2 match. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. Zambia have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game, with a recent run of L L D D L and a loss in this competition. Togo have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game, recent form W D L W L and they are 2-0 in this competition.
The numbers. At home Zambia score 0.2 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six, with one clean sheet and five games without a goal. They average 9.2 shots (1.6 on target), 4.4 corners, 1.9 cards a game and hold 48% of the ball. Togo score 0.8 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and five games without a goal, averaging 7.8 shots (4.3 on target), 3.8 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 24% against the records' 64%.
The read. No firm call: Togo are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Togo the likelier winners; Togo are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Togo. Their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 36%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.17, 88% on the records (Zambia: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home; Togo: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 7). Backup: 1st Half - GG/NG: No at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Zambia 0-1 Togo (17% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).