Benin vs Mauritania
Match details. It's an Africa Cup of Nations Qualification Group Stage - 2 clash. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 20:00 Lagos time. The game is at Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara in Abidjan.
Form. Benin have four wins, two draws and four defeats in their last ten, averaging 1.4 points a game. Their last five results are D L W L L. In this competition Benin have gone D. Mauritania have four wins, three draws and three losses in their last ten, at 1.5 points a game. Their last five are W L L D D. In this competition Mauritania have gone W.
The numbers. At home Benin average 1.2 goals and concede one a game in their last five, keeping three clean sheets and being shut out twice. They pick up about 4.0 cards a game. Mauritania score 0.7 and let in 0.8 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and six games without a goal.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: Benin are the stronger side on form and the table, but both teams' records favour Mauritania.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game and their records put over 2.5 goals at 34%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.15, 79% on the records (Benin: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Mauritania: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10). Backup: Under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.27. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Benin or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Mauritania or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Benin 0-0 Mauritania (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).