Uganda vs Libya
Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 2. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Hoima City Stadium.
Form. Uganda have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D L L. In this competition Uganda have gone D. Libya have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D W W. In this competition Libya have gone D D W L.
The numbers. Uganda score 1.6 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Uganda average 10.2 shots (2.8 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 45% of the ball. Libya score 0.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 24% against the records' 49%.
The read. No firm call: Libya are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Libya are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Libya. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Uganda 1-1 Libya (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).