TAJTJK

13:00Mon 28 Sep

PLE

PAL

Tajikistan vs Palestine

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Mon 28 Sep, 13:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.

Form. Tajikistan have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W D. Palestine have won three, drawn six and lost one of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D W D.

The numbers. Tajikistan score 1.2 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. Tajikistan average 4.7 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Palestine score 1.1 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Palestine average 8.4 shots (3.1 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 43% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 31% against the records' 69%.

The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Tajikistan 1-2 Palestine (9% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (Palestine the favourite), an open game.

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

TJK 100% of 6 · PLE 82% of 1090.8%

Tajikistan: over 0.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home · Palestine: over 0.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 91% · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

TJK 99% of 6 · PLE 72% of 1086.6%

Tajikistan: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home · Palestine: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · each game weighed by who it was against

PALESTINE GOALS

Palestine Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

PLE 82% of 10 · TJK 97% of 688.5%

Palestine scored in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Tajikistan conceded in 4 of 6 at home · both last 10: 87% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Under 3.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Palestine or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Palestine or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals (the numbers (56%) and the records (76%) are 20 points apart, and nothing settles it); Palestine or Over 1.5 Goals (no result call); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 8.8%

Tajikistan goals →

Palestine goals ↓

0-08%

1-08%

2-05%

3-02%

4-00.7%

5-00.2%

0-19%

1-113%

2-18%

3-13%

4-11.0%

5-10.2%

0-27%

1-29%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.7%

5-20.2%

0-33%

1-34%

2-33%

3-31%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-41%

1-42%

2-40.9%

3-40.4%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.4%

1-50.4%

2-50.3%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

TAJIKISTANLWDLWDWWWD1.80 PPG

PALESTINEDLWWDDWDDD1.50 PPG

THE NUMBERS

TAJIKISTAN HOMExPALESTINE AWAY

1.90SCORED A GAME1.101.00CONCEDED A GAME0.9050%CLEAN SHEETS40%33%FAILED TO SCORE67%4.67CORNERS A GAME5.201.00CARDS A GAME2.20

TRENDS

Tajikistan have scored in 70% of their games.

Palestine have scored in 80% of their games.

Tajikistan kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

Palestine kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards