Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein
Match details. This is a UEFA Nations League clash. Kick-off is Thu 1 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. Azerbaijan have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W L L. Liechtenstein have won one, drawn none and lost nine of their last ten, 0.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L L.
The numbers. At home Azerbaijan score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five, with no clean sheets. They average 6.0 shots (2.4 on target), 2.0 corners and 2.5 cards a game. Away Liechtenstein score 0.3 and concede 3.8 a game in their last six, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. They average 3.1 shots (1.0 on target) and 1.6 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 86% against the records' 51%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.
The read. No firm call: Azerbaijan are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Azerbaijan the likelier winners; Azerbaijan are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Azerbaijan.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.55, 51% on the records (Azerbaijan: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; Liechtenstein: under 3.5 goals in 2 of 6 away). Backup: 1st Half - GG/NG: No at 1.10. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Azerbaijan 2-0 Liechtenstein (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).