CD Castellon vs AD Ceuta
AD Ceuta scored under 1.5 in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CD Castellon conceded under 1.5 in 5 of 5 at home · both last 10: 85% · H2H 2 of 4 · AD Ceuta: only games against sides at CD Castellon's level · CD Castellon: only games against sides at AD Ceuta's level
Match details. This is a LaLiga 2 regular season round 8 clash. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 17:30 Lagos time. The game is at Estadio Municipal Castalia in Castellon. Marta Huerta de Aza will referee.
What's at stake. CD Castellon sit second with 19 points from seven games, two shy of Eibar and a point clear of Almeria. A win would lift them above Eibar. AD Ceuta are 21st on four points, two behind Cordoba and three clear of Albacete. A win would see them overtake Cordoba.
Form. Castellon have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, averaging 2.3 points a game. Their last five are all wins. Ceuta have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, averaging 1.0 points a game. Their last five read W D L L L.
The numbers. At home in their last five, Castellon score two and concede 0.4 a game, keeping three clean sheets. They average 12.9 shots, 5.2 on target, six corners and 1.8 cards, holding 62% of the ball. Ceuta score one and concede 2.1 a game over ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. They average 9.6 shots, 3.7 on target, 4.9 corners and 2.8 cards, with 50% possession.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Castellon have one win and three draws, no defeats. Three of those four games went over 2.5 goals and both sides scored in all four. The most recent clash on 9 May 2026 ended 1-1, with Castellon having 18 shots to Ceuta's eight and 50% of the ball. Castellon received six yellow cards in that match.
Where it pulls both ways. The odds board makes it 81% against the records' 56%.
The read. No firm call: CD Castellon are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make CD Castellon the likelier winners, they are stronger on form and the table, and both teams' records favour CD Castellon. Their xG points to an open game and their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%, with three of the last four meetings going over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.11, 87% on the records (CD Castellon: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; AD Ceuta: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10). Full cover: AD Ceuta Under 1.5 Goals at 1.22. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (CD Castellon are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (CD Castellon are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: CD Castellon 2-1 AD Ceuta (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).