MEXMEX

02:00Wed 30 Sep

PER

PER

Mexico vs Peru

CLASS A

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THE BETSTRONG · 10-ODDS · 100-ODDS ·…

DOUBLE CHANCE

Class A

MEXv

PER

Double Chance: Mexico or Draw

Mexico v Peru

International - Int… · 02:00

1.10odds

91%book

-9edge

2/2angles

THE READ

Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Wed 30 Sep, 02:00 Lagos time. It is played at Sports Illustrated Stadium.

What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.

Form. Mexico have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. Peru have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D D L.

The numbers. Mexico score 1.4 and concede 0.4 a game in their last seven at home, with six clean sheets. Mexico average 13.3 shots (4.8 on target), 4.8 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Peru score none and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and five games without a goal. Peru average 11.5 shots (3.5 on target), 2.8 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 51% of the ball.

The case against. Peru's record still gives them 20% to win.

The read. Mexico to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Mexico the likelier winners; Mexico are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Mexico. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 32%.

The bets. Best bet: Mexico or Draw at 1.10, rated 80% (Mexico unbeaten in 6 of 7 at home; Peru failed to win 5 of 6). The safer one: Peru Under 1.5 Goals at 1.09 (88%). Predicted score: Mexico 1-0 Peru (16% chance).

The agreed story. Mexico or the draw, a tight game.

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Double Chance: Mexico or DrawMAININ CODES

1.10

MEX 6 of 7 (86%) · PER 5 of 6 (83%)81.9%

Mexico unbeaten in 6 of 7 at home · Peru failed to win 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 82% · Peru: only games against sides at Mexico's level · each game weighed by who it was against

Mexico (Draw No Bet)IN CODES

1.13

MEX 5 of 6 (83%) · PER 5 of 7 (71%)80%

Mexico won 5 of 6 at home (draws left out) · Peru lost 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 81% · each game weighed by who it was against · won 9, refunded 2, lost 1

Mexico or draw and under 3.5 goalsIN CODES

1.34

MEX 6 of 7 (86%) · PER 4 of 6 (67%)65%

Mexico: the bet landed in 6 of 7 at home · Peru: the bet landed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 74% · Peru: only games against sides at Mexico's level · each game weighed by who it was against

Mexico or draw and under 2.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.75

MEX 6 of 7 (86%) · PER 3 of 6 (50%)42.2%

Mexico: the bet landed in 6 of 7 at home · Peru: the bet landed in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 55% · Peru: only games against sides at Mexico's level · each game weighed by who it was against

Mexico to WinLEANHELD · the odds board 68%

1.48

MEX 5 of 7 (71%) · PER 3 of 6 (50%)41.4%

Mexico won 5 of 7 at home · Peru lost 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 62% · Peru: only games against sides at Mexico's level · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.22

MEX 6 of 7 (86%) · PER 5 of 6 (83%)81.9%

Mexico: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 7 at home · Peru: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 82% · Peru: only games against sides at Mexico's level · each game weighed by who it was against

Under 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.81

MEX 6 of 7 (86%) · PER 4 of 6 (67%)50%

Mexico: under 2.5 goals in 6 of 7 at home · Peru: under 2.5 goals in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 63% · Peru: only games against sides at Mexico's level · each game weighed by who it was against

MEXICO GOALS

Mexico Over 0.5 goalsHELD · the odds board 86%

1.16

MEX 6 of 7 (86%) · PER 3 of 6 (50%)53.2%

Mexico scored in 6 of 7 at home · Peru conceded in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · Peru: only games against sides at Mexico's level · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Mexico win and under 3.5 goals (the numbers (45%) and the records (51%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–0 15.8%

Mexico goals →

Peru goals ↓

0-011%

1-016%

2-013%

3-07%

4-03%

5-01.0%

0-16%

1-112%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.6%

0-22%

1-24%

2-23%

3-22%

4-20.7%

5-20.2%

0-30.5%

1-30.8%

2-30.7%

3-30.4%

4-30.1%

5-30.0%

0-40.1%

1-40.1%

2-40.1%

3-40.1%

4-40.0%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.0%

2-50.0%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

MEXICOWDWWWWWWWL2.50 PPG

PERUWLDLWLDDLL0.90 PPG

THE NUMBERS

MEXICO HOMExPERU AWAY

1.70SCORED A GAME0.400.40CONCEDED A GAME1.1080%CLEAN SHEETS40%11%FAILED TO SCORE20%4.80CORNERS A GAME2.751.70CARDS A GAME1.25

TRENDS

Mexico have scored in 90% of their games.

Peru have scored in 20% of their games.

Mexico kept a clean sheet in 80% of their games.

Peru kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetscornerscards