LATLVA

17:00Fri 2 Oct

MNE

MON

Latvia vs Montenegro

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. UEFA Nations League match. Kick-off is Fri 2 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.

Form. Latvia have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first, are D L L D W. Montenegro have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first, are W W L W L.

The numbers. Latvia score 0.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. They average 7.7 shots (2.2 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.9 cards a game. Montenegro score one and concede 2.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. They average 12.7 shots (3.9 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.4 cards a game.

The case against. Latvia's record still gives them 38% to win. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.

The read. Montenegro to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Montenegro the likelier winners; Montenegro are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Montenegro.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: 1X2 - 2UP: Montenegro (the signs point different ways); Montenegro Over 0.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Montenegro to Win (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Latvia 0-1 Montenegro (8% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Montenegro or Draw (1UP)IN CODES

1.16

LVA 4 of 5 (80%) · MNE 4 of 5 (80%)84.1%

Montenegro scored first 2 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 4 · led or was unbeaten in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Latvia trailed or failed to win in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against

Montenegro or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.12

LVA 3 of 5 (60%) · MNE 4 of 5 (80%)83.6%

Montenegro: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · Latvia: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 79% · each game weighed by who it was against

Montenegro 1UPIN CODES

1.42

LVA 4 of 5 (80%) · MNE 4 of 5 (80%)81.2%

Montenegro scored first 2 of last 5, led in 4 · led in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Latvia trailed in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against

Montenegro (Draw No Bet)PAGE ONLY

1.36

LVA 2 of 5 (40%) · MNE 5 of 7 (71%)81%

Montenegro won 2 of 5 away (draws left out) · Latvia lost 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 65% · each game weighed by who it was against · won 4, refunded 2, lost 4

HALVES

1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY

1.15

LVA 4 of 5 (80%) · MNE 3 of 5 (60%)84.9%

Latvia: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Montenegro: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 84% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Under 1.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.36

LVA 3 of 5 (60%) · MNE 2 of 5 (40%)53.7%

Latvia: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Montenegro: the bet landed in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 66% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

CORNERS

Over 8.5 CornersIN CODES

1.69

LVA 3 of 5 (60%) · MNE 4 of 5 (80%)75.2%

Latvia's games: over 8.5 corners in 3 of 5 at home · Montenegro's games: over 8.5 corners in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 69% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: 1X2 - 2UP: Montenegro (the numbers (47%) and the records (79%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Montenegro Over 0.5 goals (the numbers (81%) and the records (58%) are 22 points apart, and nothing settles it); Montenegro to Win (the numbers (45%) and the records (53%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 8.2%

Latvia goals →

Montenegro goals ↓

0-06%

1-06%

2-04%

3-02%

4-00.6%

5-00.1%

0-18%

1-112%

2-17%

3-13%

4-11.0%

5-10.2%

0-27%

1-29%

2-26%

3-23%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-34%

1-35%

2-33%

3-31%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-42%

1-42%

2-41%

3-40.6%

4-40.2%

5-40.0%

0-50.5%

1-50.7%

2-50.4%

3-50.2%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

LATVIADLLDWWLLDL0.90 PPG

MONTENEGROWWLWLLLLWW1.50 PPG

THE NUMBERS

LATVIA HOMExMONTENEGRO AWAY

0.60SCORED A GAME1.301.40CONCEDED A GAME2.0030%CLEAN SHEETS10%3.00CORNERS A GAME6.001.90CARDS A GAME2.40

TRENDS

Latvia have scored in 50% of their games.

Montenegro have scored in 60% of their games.

Latvia kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Montenegro kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards