Kazakhstan vs Moldova

Match details. It's a UEFA Nations League clash. Kick-off is Fri 2 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.

Form. Kazakhstan have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five go L D W W D. Moldova have won none, drawn two and lost eight of their last ten, 0.2 points a game. Their last five read D L L L D.

The numbers. At home Kazakhstan score 1.3 and concede 0.5 a game in the last six, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 10.1 shots (3.6 on target), 3.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game. Away Moldova score 0.6 and concede four a game in the last five, no clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 9.0 shots (3.2 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.9 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 28%.

The case against. Moldova's record still gives them 23% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.

The read. Kazakhstan to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Kazakhstan the likelier winners; Kazakhstan are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Kazakhstan. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 28%.

The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.28, 74% on the records (Kazakhstan: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home; Moldova: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). The safer one: Moldova Under 1.5 Goals at 1.25 (95%). Backup: Kazakhstan or Under 2.5 Goals at 1.15. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Kazakhstan 2-0 Moldova (12% chance).