Match details. Northern Premier League Premier, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 19:45 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Alfreton Town FC are 11th on 12 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Rylands, level on points with Whitby Town. A win would take them above Rylands. Guiseley FC are 4th on 19 points after 9 games, 3 points behind Redcar Athletic, 2 points clear of Warrington Town. A win would take them level on points with Redcar Athletic.
Form. Alfreton Town FC have won four, drawn none and lost five of their last nine, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W L. In this competition Alfreton Town FC have gone L W L W L L. Guiseley FC have won six, drawn one and lost two of their last nine, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W. In this competition Guiseley FC have gone W W L W W W.
The numbers. Alfreton Town FC score 1.7 and concede 1.1 a game over their last nine, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Alfreton Town FC average 10.0 shots (4.3 on target), 4.3 corners and 2.3 cards a game. Guiseley FC score 2.4 and concede 1.1 a game over their last nine, with three clean sheets.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Alfreton Town FC have won two, drawn none and lost one. Three of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. The last time they met, on 7 May 2022, it finished Alfreton Town FC 2-1 Guiseley FC.
The case against. Alfreton Town FC's record still gives them 38% to win.
The read. Guiseley FC to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Guiseley FC the likelier winners; Guiseley FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Guiseley FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 81%. Three of the last three meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Guiseley FC or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Alfreton Town FC 1-2 Guiseley FC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).