FC Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka
Match details. J.League Cup, Round of 64. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at Kintetsu Hanazono Rugby Stadium, Osaka.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. FC Osaka have won six, drawn four and lost none of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D W. In this competition FC Osaka have gone W. Avispa Fukuoka have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D L L.
The numbers. FC Osaka score three and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. FC Osaka average 11.0 shots (5.3 on target), 7.0 corners and 1.1 cards a game. Avispa Fukuoka score 1.3 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Avispa Fukuoka average 10.9 shots (4.3 on target), 5.2 corners and 1.9 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 17% against the records' 67%.
The read. No firm call: FC Osaka are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make FC Osaka the likelier winners; FC Osaka are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FC Osaka. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: FC Osaka 2-1 Avispa Fukuoka (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).