Saint Lucia vs Bermuda
Match details. CONCACAF Nations League, League B - 2. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 01:00 Lagos time. It is played at Darren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet.
Form. Saint Lucia have won two, drawn none and lost eight of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L W. In this competition Saint Lucia have gone L L L L W. Bermuda have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L L. In this competition Bermuda have gone L.
The numbers. Saint Lucia score 0.7 and concede 3.2 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and five games without a goal. Saint Lucia average 12.0 shots (3.5 on target), 4.0 corners and 0.8 cards a game, with 44% of the ball. Bermuda score 1.2 and concede 2.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Bermuda average 7.9 shots (3.5 on target), 3.2 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 39% of the ball.
The case against. Saint Lucia's record still gives them 39% to win.
The read. Bermuda to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Bermuda the likelier winners; Bermuda are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bermuda. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 88%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Saint Lucia 1-2 Bermuda (9% chance).
The agreed story. Bermuda or the draw, an open game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Saint Lucia in their last internationals: lost 0-2 at Barbados. Bermuda in their last internationals: lost 1-2 v Guadeloupe (rated above them). Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).