Match details. CONCACAF Nations League, League B - 2. Kick-off is Mon 28 Sep, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Darren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet.
Form. Guadeloupe have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L W. In this competition Guadeloupe have gone W W W D L. Barbados have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L W. In this competition Barbados have gone W L L W.
The numbers. Guadeloupe score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. Guadeloupe average 18.7 shots (8.0 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 70% of the ball. Barbados score two and concede 2.5 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet. Barbados average 13.0 shots (5.0 on target), 5.3 corners and 3.3 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
Head to head. Guadeloupe have won all of the last two meetings. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 12 Jun 2022, it finished Guadeloupe 2-1 Barbados.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 41% against the records' 62%.
The read. No firm call: Guadeloupe are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Guadeloupe the likelier winners; Guadeloupe are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Guadeloupe. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.32, 75% on the records (Guadeloupe: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 10; Barbados: over 1.5 goals in 10 of 10). Backup: Guadeloupe or Over 2.5 Goals at 1.45. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Guadeloupe 2-1 Barbados (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).