CA Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers
Match details. Primera Division, Clausura - 9. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Monumental Luis Tróccoli, Montevideo. The referee is Mathias De Armas.
What's at stake. CA Cerro are 6th on 14 points after 8 games, level on points with Club Nacional, 1 point clear of Juventud. A win would take them above Club Nacional. Montevideo Wanderers are 9th on 12 points after 8 games, level on points with Racing Montevideo, level on points with Progreso. A win would take them above Racing Montevideo.
Form. CA Cerro have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W D. In this competition CA Cerro have gone D L W W D L. Montevideo Wanderers have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D L W. In this competition Montevideo Wanderers have gone W D D L W L.
The numbers. CA Cerro score 1.1 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Montevideo Wanderers score one and concede 2.2 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings CA Cerro have won two, drawn two and lost five. Four of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, CA Cerro won one, one was drawn and Montevideo Wanderers won two. The last time they met, on 1 Sep 2026, it finished CA Cerro 1-1 Montevideo Wanderers.
Where it pulls both ways. CA Cerro are the form side, but the meetings favour Montevideo Wanderers: in the last nine meetings, CA Cerro won two, Montevideo Wanderers won five and two were drawn.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%. Five of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.21, 82% on the records (CA Cerro: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10; Montevideo Wanderers: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 6 away). Backup: CA Cerro Over 0.5 Goals at 1.43. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: CA Cerro 1-1 Montevideo Wanderers (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).