Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay FC
Match details. USL Championship, Group Stage. Kick-off is Sun 4 Oct, 03:00 Lagos time. It is played at Championship Soccer Stadium. The referee is M. Thompson.
What's at stake. Orange County SC are 6th on 39 points after 26 games, 1 point behind Lexington, level on points with Colorado Springs. A win would take them above Lexington. Monterey Bay FC are 12th on 18 points after 26 games, 15 points behind Phoenix Rising. Monterey Bay FC have nothing left to play for.
Form. Orange County SC have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D D. In this competition Orange County SC have gone W L L D D L. Monterey Bay FC have won none, drawn three and lost seven of their last ten, 0.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D D L. In this competition Monterey Bay FC have gone L L D D L D.
The numbers. Orange County SC score one and concede two a game in their last seven at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Orange County SC average 3.6 corners and 1.5 cards a game. Monterey Bay FC score 0.8 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Monterey Bay FC average 4.1 corners and 2.6 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Orange County SC have won four, drawn one and lost five. Five of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Orange County SC won one and Monterey Bay FC won three. The last time they met, on 26 Jul 2026, it finished Orange County SC 2-1 Monterey Bay FC.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%.
The case against. Monterey Bay FC's record still gives them 33% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. Orange County SC to win. A tight game. Orange County SC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Orange County SC. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.46, 70% on the records (Orange County SC: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 7 at home; Monterey Bay FC: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Backup: Orange County SC Over 0.5 Goals at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Orange County SC (Draw No Bet) (the signs point different ways); Orange County SC or draw and under 3.5 goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Orange County SC 1-0 Monterey Bay FC (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).