Match details. Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, Group Stage - 2. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. Cape Verde have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D D L. In this competition Cape Verde have gone L. Rwanda have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L L. In this competition Rwanda have gone W.
The numbers. Cape Verde score 1.6 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. Cape Verde average 9.2 shots (2.2 on target), 2.5 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 39% of the ball. Rwanda score 1.3 and concede one a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Rwanda average 1.0 corners and 2.8 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Cape Verde have won none, drawn two and lost none. None of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. The last time they met, on 17 Nov 2020, it finished Cape Verde 0-0 Rwanda.
The case against. Rwanda's record still gives them 24% to win.
The read. Cape Verde to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Cape Verde the likelier winners; Cape Verde are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Cape Verde. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.
The bets. Best bet: Cape Verde or Draw at 1.09, 76% on the records (Cape Verde unbeaten in 8 of 10; Rwanda failed to win 5 of 10). Backup: Cape Verde or Both Teams Score at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Cape Verde or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Cape Verde to Win (the signs point different ways); Cape Verde or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Cape Verde 1-0 Rwanda (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).